Conservation in an age of ecological transformation
Climate change is interacting with many pre-existing anthropogenic stressors to drive rapid, often irreversible ecological transformations in land and riverscapes across the planet. Examples include transitions from forest to grassland, coral reefs to macroalgal dominant communities, and shifts from cold to cool water fisheries. Since 2017, I have participated in several working groups (FedNET and AFS/TWS) evaluating ecosystem transformations resulting from climate change and how to respond to these foundational ecosystem shifts. Understanding ecological transformation is particularly important to protected areas, given many of these lands are poised to transform. Managers urgently need information about outcomes of the press and pulse of climate change and potential interventions to respond to it. This work examines the appropriateness and efficacy of a spectrum of responses to transformation including resisting fundamental ecosystem change, letting change play out autonomously, or directing a trajectory of ecological change towards a novel condition. Developing information on how to deploy portfolios of management across this 'resist-accept-direct' spectrum will be key to stewarding change in an age of ecological transformation. This work has been published in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, a special issue of BioScience, Fisheries, and an upcoming issue of Fisheries Management and Ecology.
Climate change is interacting with many pre-existing anthropogenic stressors to drive rapid, often irreversible ecological transformations in land and riverscapes across the planet. Examples include transitions from forest to grassland, coral reefs to macroalgal dominant communities, and shifts from cold to cool water fisheries. Since 2017, I have participated in several working groups (FedNET and AFS/TWS) evaluating ecosystem transformations resulting from climate change and how to respond to these foundational ecosystem shifts. Understanding ecological transformation is particularly important to protected areas, given many of these lands are poised to transform. Managers urgently need information about outcomes of the press and pulse of climate change and potential interventions to respond to it. This work examines the appropriateness and efficacy of a spectrum of responses to transformation including resisting fundamental ecosystem change, letting change play out autonomously, or directing a trajectory of ecological change towards a novel condition. Developing information on how to deploy portfolios of management across this 'resist-accept-direct' spectrum will be key to stewarding change in an age of ecological transformation. This work has been published in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, a special issue of BioScience, Fisheries, and an upcoming issue of Fisheries Management and Ecology.
The interactive effects of climate change, land-use, and invasive species
Climate change is anticipated to favor the establishment of invasive species in many aquatic habitats, and for systems where non-native species are already established, it is likely to enhance their spread and intensify their impacts. This is a pressing issue in the Pacific Northwest, where elevated water temperatures may promote the range expansion of warm-water predators such as invasive smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu). Bass occur throughout the northwest and are predacious on outmigrating salmon smolts and juvenile salmon rearing in streams. This project aims to predict the upstream range expansion of bass as stream temperatures warm in basins with contrasting land-use. I also investigated adaptation strategies such as spatially prioritized riparian restoration to prevent bass from moving farther into critical salmon-rearing areas. This work was published in Ecological Applications, Conservation Biology, Journal of Animal Ecology, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society and Freshwater Biology.
Hydro-climate change in National Parks
Climate change is driving fundamental changes to the hydro-climate of US National Parks. Flood regimes are changing or are poised to change. Additionally, interactive changes in temperature and precipitation are shifting the runoff characteristics of parks, sometimes in counter-intuitive ways. For example, parks may experience greater annual precipitation, but declining runoff (a correlate of streamflow) due to rising air temperatures and associated increases in evapotranspiration. Hydro-climatic change will fundamentally alter freshwater ecosystems within parks, challenge key park operations, as well as increase potential water-rights conflicts in water scarce regions. I have participated in a variety of studies evaluating changing flood regimes and runoff characteristics of national parks to help inform management. This work has been published in Climate Risk Management and the journal Water.
Climate change is driving fundamental changes to the hydro-climate of US National Parks. Flood regimes are changing or are poised to change. Additionally, interactive changes in temperature and precipitation are shifting the runoff characteristics of parks, sometimes in counter-intuitive ways. For example, parks may experience greater annual precipitation, but declining runoff (a correlate of streamflow) due to rising air temperatures and associated increases in evapotranspiration. Hydro-climatic change will fundamentally alter freshwater ecosystems within parks, challenge key park operations, as well as increase potential water-rights conflicts in water scarce regions. I have participated in a variety of studies evaluating changing flood regimes and runoff characteristics of national parks to help inform management. This work has been published in Climate Risk Management and the journal Water.
Climate change adaptation in protected areas
Understanding how to adapt to climate change is a critical need for ecosystem managers and conservation professionals across the globe. Adaptation includes a broad spectrum of activities, including assessments that define what is vulnerable to climate change and why, understanding the risks and rewards of engaging in different types of adaptation, as well as implementing and evaluating the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies. I have participated in a variety of team-based science efforts to deploy various elements of adaptation, including developing an approach to evaluate the adaptive capacity of species to climate change, and developing methods to assess the risk of relocating organisms threatened by climate change. In addition to contributing to adaptation science, I have also had the opportunity to participate in several working groups to develop adaptation strategies for protected areas, including the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. I have also co-lead trainings on climate adaptation for a variety of protected areas, including Yosemite National Park. This work has been published in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, as well as Ecological Solutions and Evidence.
Understanding how to adapt to climate change is a critical need for ecosystem managers and conservation professionals across the globe. Adaptation includes a broad spectrum of activities, including assessments that define what is vulnerable to climate change and why, understanding the risks and rewards of engaging in different types of adaptation, as well as implementing and evaluating the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies. I have participated in a variety of team-based science efforts to deploy various elements of adaptation, including developing an approach to evaluate the adaptive capacity of species to climate change, and developing methods to assess the risk of relocating organisms threatened by climate change. In addition to contributing to adaptation science, I have also had the opportunity to participate in several working groups to develop adaptation strategies for protected areas, including the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. I have also co-lead trainings on climate adaptation for a variety of protected areas, including Yosemite National Park. This work has been published in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, as well as Ecological Solutions and Evidence.
Planning for a changing climate
Modern resource management requires recognition that the climate of tomorrow will be different from the past, and necessitates accounting for our uncertainty in the ways climate may change. When trying to adapt to a changing climate under these conditions, resource managers often turn to scenario planning as a tool. Managers use scenario planning to explore plausible ways the climate may change, allowing them to work with climate change uncertainty rather than being paralyzed by it. Once identified, scenarios of the future are used to develop proactive actions to prepare for and adapt to climate change. I have evaluated approaches for developing climate information used in scenario planning, and have participated in scenario planning efforts to support resource decision making. I also contributed to the development of the recently published guide 'Planning for a Changing Climate', used by the National Park Service to incorporate climate change scenarios into resource management. This guide lays out step-by-step instructions planners can use to identify adaptation approaches to be incorporated in a variety of planning efforts. This work has been published in the journals Climatic Change and Park Stewardship Forum, as well as agency reports.
Modern resource management requires recognition that the climate of tomorrow will be different from the past, and necessitates accounting for our uncertainty in the ways climate may change. When trying to adapt to a changing climate under these conditions, resource managers often turn to scenario planning as a tool. Managers use scenario planning to explore plausible ways the climate may change, allowing them to work with climate change uncertainty rather than being paralyzed by it. Once identified, scenarios of the future are used to develop proactive actions to prepare for and adapt to climate change. I have evaluated approaches for developing climate information used in scenario planning, and have participated in scenario planning efforts to support resource decision making. I also contributed to the development of the recently published guide 'Planning for a Changing Climate', used by the National Park Service to incorporate climate change scenarios into resource management. This guide lays out step-by-step instructions planners can use to identify adaptation approaches to be incorporated in a variety of planning efforts. This work has been published in the journals Climatic Change and Park Stewardship Forum, as well as agency reports.
Conservation planning for freshwaters
Scientists have recently begun to explore the potential of establishing protected areas as one approach to curtail biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. In a chapter of my PhD, I produced the first national assessment of freshwater fish resources contained within the National Park Service (NPS), and evaluated the potential for NPS units to serve as a comprehensive freshwater protected area system in the United States. Although most parks were not designed with freshwater conservation in mind, I found nearly two-thirds (62%) of native U.S. fishes reside in national parks. I also identified the most irreplaceable watersheds that contain the species not currently housed within the NPS system (left figure). This information could be used to determine the best sites for future parks or areas to develop collaborations with other park systems. The results from this work were published in Conservation Letters.
Managing invasive species
Photo: Jeff Cordell
Managers need, but usually lack, assessments of the various pathways of non-indigenous species introduction to determine the most likely source of potential invaders. This information is required to craft effective policy to prevent the introduction of invasive species. Prevention is widely recognized as the most favorable invasive species management strategy when compared to the relative costs of controlling or eradicating an invader, once established. In a multi-year study, Jeff Cordell and I evaluated the relative risk of ballast water releases to Washington ports from ships conducting domestic versus foreign voyages by comparing the species and density of ‘high-risk’ organisms carried by each source. Ballast water is a primary pathway for the introduction of non-indigenous marine species to coastal habitats. This work was published in Biological Conservation and Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems.
Eutrophication and aquatic food webs
Waquoit Bay Research Foundation
The availability of nitrogen in coastal systems is steadily increasing as coastal watersheds become more urbanized. It is known that nutrient enriched estuaries exhibit a greater standing crop of phytoplankton, but there is little information on the degree of coupling between nutrient supply and zooplankton in estuarine environments. Given the ubiquity of nitrogen loading on a global scale, and the key trophic role zooplankton play in supporting fish, it is important to understand the potential impact of changing resource supply on these animals. I used a combination of mesocosm experiments and observational studies to assess the influence of nutrient enrichment on planktonic foodwebs. This work was published in Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science and the Marine Biological Bulletin.